On March 15, the Agricultural Products Processing Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture released the "2015 Annual Analysis Report on the Vegetable Oil Processing Industry", stating that after the state abolished the rapeseed procurement policy in 2015, the area of ​​rapeseed in autumn has been reduced by more than 20%. The cliff-like decline in the domestic rapeseed planting area is a direct response to domestic rapeseed planting after the country abolished the temporary rapeseed procurement and storage policy.

One month later, it will be the season for new rapeseed harvest. After experiencing the painful period of the cancellation of the temporary storage policy, how is the domestic rape industry developing? How can rape oil processing companies solve the development problem? It has become the focus of the market players in the rapeseed industry.

bunch of fragrant small squeezed

A reporter from 　　 Grain and Oil Market News found in Sichuan Province that the operating rate of crushing enterprises in the province remained above 30%, and the operating rate of small and medium-sized crushing enterprises whose main products are small-flavored crushing products reached 90%, showing a good momentum of development.

But in contrast, some vegetable oil squeezing companies in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River have lost their “cheese” for temporary storage, and their business situation has gone from bad to worse. Amidst the industry’s bad news about the oil industry, low operating rates, changes in product structure, and even shutdowns have become the “new normal” for domestic vegetable oil companies.

Sichuan Luongxiang Xiaozha took the lead to rise in the weak vegetable oil market, which is like injecting a "pill" into the vegetable oil industry, causing ripples in the calm vegetable oil market. Under the premise that policy orientation and market prospects are still unclear, switching to the coriander oil market seems to have become a "life-saving straw" for most rapeseed crushing enterprises.

Zhang Liwei, Director of the Analysis and Forecast Division of the National Grain and Oil Information Center, said before that domestic rapeseed processing enterprises will diverge in the future. Attracted by the high profits of coriander oil, the number of rural oil pressing workshops and coriander oil production lines may continue to increase and become the main force in domestic rapeseed processing. Large rapeseed processing enterprises in the main producing areas may be forced to transform.

In fact, the vegetable oil companies that originally produced strong-flavored small squeezed vegetable oils have increased their production lines for strong coriander oil at a significantly faster pace. In addition, some large and medium-sized oil plants regard the small-flavored oil mill as a new profit point and transformation direction, and have begun to purchase equipment for processing strong-flavored vegetable oil, trying to find a breakthrough from the way of product transformation.

Anxian Chen’s Vegetable Oil Co., Ltd. expanded 60 sets of "95" presses have been installed and awaiting commissioning; Chengdu Xinxing Cereals and Oils Co., Ltd. is planning to install 64 new presses; Anxian Huida Oil Chemical Co., Ltd. accounts for A new plant with an area of ​​50 acres and a daily processing of 300 tons of rapeseed is also under construction... However, it is not known whether rape oil processing companies get together in the fragrant and small squeezed market, whether it will overcrowd the coriander oil supply side. But what is certain is that the consumer demand for aromatic rape oil is highly regional and targeted. The increase in market demand is still lagging behind the rapid increase in production capacity of large and medium-sized oil plants. Whether Luzhouxiangxiaozha can become the "savior" of the vegetable oil industry remains to be tested by the market.

Danger and opportunity coexist

In recent years, with the increasing demand for edible oil and increasing attention to food taste, nutrition, safety and other issues, the strong-flavor rapeseed oil series products have higher requirements for raw materials and production processes, and imported rapeseed oil There is no way to achieve this, and it is determined that Luzhou Xiaozheng will become the mainstream of small-package rapeseed oil products, and the demand space will continue to increase.

However, under the trend that the planting area of ​​domestic rapeseed is declining year by year, a series of unknowns such as whether the supply of raw materials is sufficient and the growth space of coriander oil consumption test the development of Luzhou Xiaozhuang, adding a lot to the seemingly bright future of Xiaozhuang. Variables have also made the small squeeze market in the period of development opportunity become confusing and hidden crisis.

Since the country cancelled the acquisition of the temporary storage of rapeseed last year, the industry generally expects that the rapeseed planting area and rapeseed production in my country will both decline in 2016. Under the dual pressure of increasing production capacity and declining output, rapeseed oil processing companies using domestic rapeseed as raw materials may face the embarrassment of "seedless cooking", which will affect the supply of raw materials for small crushing enterprises.

From the perspective of market supply and demand, the amount of vegetable oil in temporary storage in the country is still huge. During the continuous auction of vegetable oil in temporary storage, domestic vegetable oil supply will remain abundant for a long time, which will restrict the price of vegetable oil from rising sharply and even suppress the price of coriander oil.

At the same time, due to the meager profit of vegetable oil processing, some small crushing enterprises that have not received policy subsidies are still hovering on the edge of "starting to lose money, not starting to lose the market." With the substantial increase in production capacity and the narrowing of the price of vegetable oil, the profit will be further diluted. The coriander oil companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, may face a survival crisis.

Rapeseed meal is the main source of profit for rapeseed oil companies, and it is an indisputable fact that prices have bottomed in recent years. Domestic rapeseed meal has low cost performance, and rapeseed meal, which accounts for a large proportion of aquatic feed, is gradually being replaced by other meal types. At the same time, affected by the continuous decline in profits in aquaculture and other industries, the market demand for rapeseed meal is also declining.

In addition, the concentration of the coriander oil industry is not high, and the lack of regional leading brands also restricts the healthy development of vegetable oil companies. In addition, there is a large price difference between coriander seed oil and imported non-genetically modified canola oil and temporary storage auction rape oil. Some non-standard small oil plants use imported canola oil to mix coriander seed oil, or even cotton Oil, sunflower oil, and rice bran oil are blended to pretend to be coriander seed oil to make profits, and the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money has caused coriander oil companies to cast a strong "trust crisis" shadow.

Can the coriander oil futures bail out?

Jiang Minjie, general manager of Chengdu Xinxing Cereals and Oils Co., Ltd., pointed out: "Sichuan enterprises above designated size, especially coriander oil crushing enterprises, have a relatively high operating rate, and the market space for vegetable oil consumption has been further expanded, largely due to government subsidies to processing enterprises. "It is understood that in order to promote oil production and industrial development, and to mobilize the enthusiasm of local governments, the central government has provided special awards to 44 major oil-producing counties in Sichuan Province since 2012. Up to now, a total of 580 million yuan has been awarded.

After the temporary purchase and storage policy of rapeseed was abolished last year, Sichuan Province actively used the special subsidy funds allocated by the central government to provide a one-time fixed subsidy of 0.25 yuan/jin to enterprises whose listed purchase price of rapeseed was 2.30 yuan/jin and above. Encourage oil and fat processing companies to actively enter the market and buy, benefiting nearly 70 companies.

Under the support of policy subsidies, all Sichuan oil and fat companies participating in the subsidized acquisition started production, which is unique among the national vegetable oil companies.

“Rapeseed oil processing is a meager profit industry, and companies earn processing fees. The current prices of rape oil and rapeseed meal are low, and many companies rely on government subsidies to maintain their start-up status.” said Chen Qianlin, general manager of Anxian Chen's Vegetable Oil Co., Ltd.

However, in the critical period of my country’s agricultural policy reform, the vegetable oil industry is also facing major adjustments and reshuffles. Once the policy shifts or subsidies weaken, companies that rely on subsidies to survive may inevitably undergo transformation, suspension of production, or even The crisis of closure.

Industry insiders pointed out that my country’s oil and fat enterprises can only actively innovate in accordance with the development model of modern enterprises, “make products internally, open markets externally”, and improve from the aspects of excellent quality, trustworthy brands, and increasing the added value of products in the industrial chain. The core competitiveness of enterprises will not fall into a loss or shut down after the government "weaning". In addition, processing companies must actively use futures hedging and other methods to avoid operating risks caused by price fluctuations and improve their ability to prevent market risks.

"Luzhou-flavored rapeseed oil also meets the standards of rapeseed oil futures, but its special'scent' and other characteristics have not been reflected. If the futures varieties of strong-flavored rapeseed oil are added in the future, domestic rapeseed oil will have an exclusive advantage and will further improve the domestic rapeseed oil market. Competitiveness." Jiang Minjie said.

Note: The oil presses purchased by Anxian Chen’s Vegetable Oil Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Xinxing Cereals and Oils Co., Ltd. both purchase the company’s "Qingjiang" oil press.